David Annis, Ph.D.  

SEC Championship

SportsQuant predicts:

Alabama 26
Georgia 19

The idea behind the ratings is that we measure each team's ability to score points, and to prevent opponents from scoring, concurrently with its ability to win games.  Alabama's ability to prevent opponents' scoring (loosely their defensive strength, but encompassing special teams and offensive ineptitude resulting in opponents' points) is better (even if experts say Georgia has more talent on defense).  Only Notre Dame and Florida were better. (Georgia is #12, so they're good too.) Georgia's offense is better (15 vs 26), but not enough to compensate.

Referencing our rankings of offensive and defensive strengths, we see that Alabama has the 3rd best defense, Georgia the 12th.  Georgia has the 15th best offense, Alabama the 26th, again, according to the SportsQuant algorithms.